Predicting the Evolution of CO2 Emissions in Bahrain with Automated Forecasting Methods

The 2012 Doha meeting established the continuation of the Kyoto protocol, the legally-binding global agreement under which signatory countries had agreed to reduce their carbon emissions. Contrary to this assumed obligation, all G20 countries with the exception of France and the UK saw significant increases in their CO2 emissions over the last 25 years, surpassing 300% in the case of China. This paper attempts to forecast the evolution of carbon dioxide emissions in Bahrain over the 2012–2021 decade by employing seven Automated Forecasting Methods, including the exponential smoothing state space model (ETS), the Holt–Winters Model, the BATS/TBATS model, ARIMA, the structural time series model (STS), the naive model, and the neural network time series forecasting method (NNAR). Results indicate a reversal of the current decreasing trend of pollution in the country, with a point estimate of 2309 metric tons per capita at the end of 2020 and 2317 at the end of 2021, as compared to the 1934 level achieved in 2010. The country’s baseline level corresponding to year 1990 (as specified by the Doha amendment of the Kyoto protocol) is approximately 25.54 metric tons per capita, which implies a maximum level of 20.96 metric tons per capita for the year 2020 (corresponding to a decrease of 18% relative to the baseline level) in order for Bahrain to comply with the protocol. Our results therefore suggest that Bahrain cannot meet its assumed target.